The weighted version is “better” so I made it the default.

Old pattern:
www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html showed 50/50 (50/50 use to be all there was)
www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL2.html showed weighted

Current pattern:
www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html shows weighted
www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL2.html shows 50/50

Also, a while back I added a “regression toward the mean” piece to the weighting formulas. (You can thank Justin for helping me wrap my head around the concept.) This means that in the beginning of the season the formula works more like 50/50, and it morphs into a more weighted formula as the season progresses and each team’s record more likely matches their “real ability”. The coefficients I use for the regression are not as good as they could be. Some day I’ll get around to explicitly documenting the formulas I use for each sport so you can suggest improvements.

If you still see wacky “chance will make playoffs” graphs, where the early season odds jump right to 0 or 100 percent, it just means I calculated those numbers before I added the new regression feature.

Thanks everyone for visiting and telling your friends. I’m working on getting the new NASCAR season up and running with a weighted version.

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