Today’s weighted numbers are bad.
I must have broke something yesterday trying to improve the formula.
The 50/50 numbers should be fine.
Update: The numbers are wrong because I forgot a negative sign:
double percentOfGamesPlayed = final / (double)(final + needToPlay);
double regressPercentage = 0;
if (percentOfGamesPlayed < .5)
{
regressPercentage = (-1.5 * percentOfGamesPlayed) + 1;
}
else
{
//what I had, WRONG! --> regressPercentage = (.5 * percentOfGamesPlayed) + .5;
regressPercentage = (-.5 * percentOfGamesPlayed) + .5;
}
double regressMin = .1;
regressPercentage += regressMin * percentOfGamesPlayed;
Pythag = Pythag - ((Pythag - .5) * regressPercentage);
The correct number are cranking now. I’ll update when they are up.
Update: NHL and NBA are updated.
The code above, if you are wondering, is how I added the “Regression towards the mean” feature to the weighted method.
