Are the Senators eliminated?
[Update, morning of April 3]
Yes.
They lost last night and the Canadiens won.
[Update, morning of April 2]
The Senators are still in the race.
Either that or Sports Club Stats has a bug. It still saw 2 times out of 50 million where they win a 3 way tie with the Canadiens and Sabres. They can’t miss. :)
To stay in tonight:
- The Senators need to beat the Bruins
- The Islanders need to beat the Canadiens in regulation
[end of update]
I see on the web they supposedly are (thanks Jon), but I’m showing them still making it 3 out of 50 million times.
Here is what has to happen:
The Senators have to win out.
The Canadiens have to lose out in regulation
The Panthers have to get 0 wins and at most 1 ot loss.
And the Sabres have to finish with 2 wins, 3 regulation losses and 2 overtime losses.
Which leads to a 3 way tie for the 8-10 seeds between the Senators, Canadiens, and Sabres.
All with 88 points and 39 wins
The next tie breaker:
If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any “odd” games, shall be used to determine the standing.
There are no “odd games” to remove. They all play each of the others 6 times, 3 at home and 3 on the road:
10/10/2008 Sabres beat Canadiens 2-1 (so)
10/27/2008 Sabres lost to Senators 2-5
11/11/2008 Canadiens beat Senators 4-0
11/20/2008 Senators lost to Canadiens 2-3 (so)
11/29/2008 Canadiens beat Sabres 3-2
12/20/2008 Canadiens beat Sabres 4-3 (ot)
1/6/2009 Sabres beat Senators 4-2
1/17/2009 Senators lost to Canadiens 4-5 (so)
2/6/2009 Sabres beat Canadiens 3-2
2/7/2009 Senators beat Sabres 3-2 (so)
2/11/2009 Sabres lost to Senators 1-3
2/21/2009 Canadiens beat Senators 5-3
3/4/2009 Sabres beat Canadiens 5-1
3/7/2009 Senators beat Sabres 6-3
3/17/2009 Senators beat Sabres 4-2
3/19/2009 Senators beat Canadiens 5-4
3/28/2009 Canadiens lost to Sabres 3-4 (so)
4/6/2009 Canadiens lost to Senators ?-?
Talley those up to get:
Senators: 7 wins, 3 losses, 2 ot losses 16 points Pack your bags!
Canadiens: 6 wins, 4 losses, 2 ot losses 14 points
Sabres 5 wins, 5 losses, 2 ot losses 12 points
Now, come to think of it, I’m not exactly sure what the NHL means by “higher percentage of available points”. My code just uses average points per game. But it’s irrelevant in this case because they all had the same number of games and the same number of ot losses.
Senator win the tiebreaker and make the playoffs.
Or am I crazy?
April 2nd, 2009 at 12:16 am
Yeah, that’s what they mean by higher percentage of available points. If, for instance, PHI, CAR, and PIT all wound up deadlocked in points and wins, PHI and PIT would have 10 head-to-head games, while CAR would only have 8. Thus, they use percentage of available points rather than just “head-to-head points”.
The “odd game” rule is a relic that hasn’t been applicable since before the lockout, when teams played some opponents 5 times. Currently division opponents get 6 games and conference opponents 4 games, so there will never be an odd game.
April 2nd, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Thanks Jon,
I wish I knew that before I added the code to handle that damn “odd game” rule :)
April 2nd, 2009 at 6:54 pm
Wow! very nice catch! (I’m assuming your calculations are correct ;-) )
April 2nd, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Well, this is all irrelevant now (senators lost, canadiens won). Great work though, nobody else caught this.
It would have been incredibly epic if it had happened though. Not only because of the infinitely small chance, but because of the reactions that tsn/nhl/espn would have. :P (and think of the rep you’d get! “THIS GUY KNEW THE SENATORS WEREN’T COMPLETELY ELIMINATED”)
April 3rd, 2009 at 6:50 am
Thanks James, Wayne.
I was hoping it would grow into a big spectacle.