The Beautiful Game

The 08-09 UEFA Tournament Qualification Odds page is finally working.
 
To which my compatriots say “What?”
 
Here is a soccer rundown:
 
Almost Every country has multiple soccer leagues arranged in a ladder. During the year long season each team in a league typically plays every other team in that league twice. The wonderful thing is at the end of each season a leagues top teams swap places with bottom teams in the next league up the ladder. So your blocks’ rec soccer team could rise, through the years, to your country’s top pro league. You can always dream.
 
At the end of the regular season each country has a one major “playoff” tournament that pulls the top teams from the top leagues. There are also multiple minor “playoff” tournaments that pull from the teams that don’t make the top tournament.
 
That sums up a countries’ domestic soccer, but wait, there’s more.
 
Each country is a member of their continents soccer “governing body”. There are six:
* Asia: Asian Football Confederation (AFC)
* Africa: Confederation of African Football (CAF)
* Central/North America & Caribbean: Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF)
* Europe: Union of European Football Associations (UEFA)
* Oceania: Oceania Football Confederation (OFC)
* South America: Confederación Sudamericana de Fútbol (South American Football Confederation; CONMEBOL)
 
Each year the continent runs “playoff tournaments” made up of the best teams from each country. These are not “all star” teams (like play in the Word Cup) but the very same teams that played in the domestic leagues. The tournaments take most of a year, and the domestic season takes most of the year, so to do both each year the two run simultaneously. How you do in your domestic play this season determines weather you make one of next seasons continent wide tournaments.
 
Finally, the six continent “governing bodies” are loosely associated with FIFA, the word governing body that runs the World Cup every 4 years.
 
Now what does this site currently offer soccerwise?
On the domestic front I cover the top leagues in 14 European countries. For each league I simulate the remaining regular season to show the odds of coming in first and the odds of moving down the latter. For a few countries, like England, I also cover some minor leagues. Those leagues also show the odds of moving up the ladder. Just like the other sports, I slice and dice the number to show this week’s big games and each team’s “what if” scenarios. I do not yet show the odds of making the countries domestic playoffs, or advancing in the playoffs once they start.
 
On the continent front I just finished the page that started this post off, showing the odds that the teams from those same 14 countries will make next seasons 3 Europe wide UEFA tournaments:
* Champions League
* UEFA Cup
* Intertoto Cup
 
What’s Next?
I want to add more countries from around the world, but first I think I’ll whip up some NCAA Basketball.

7 Responses to “The Beautiful Game”

  1. Colin Pollard Says:

    Ken,

    Very interesting web site!!!

    Regarding English Football (soccer) League Division 1 —- How do you intend to address the impact of the 15 point deduction to Leeds United and the 10 point deduction to Luton???

    These point deductions will have a major impact to the championship/promotion probabilities of Leeds United and the relegation probability of Luton.

    Keep up the good work.

    Colin Pollard.

  2. Ken Roberts Says:

    Thanks for clueing me in Colin. I’ll account for it with a little -10 and -15 hard coded into my code :)
    Ken

  3. Ken Roberts Says:

    Thanks again Colin, I fixed League Division 1:
    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/LeagueOne.html

  4. Colin Pollard Says:

    Ken,

    Me again!!

    This time its the Scottish Premier League!!!

    In this case there are a total of 33 games played by each team — ie each team meets the others 3 times during the season. Your set-up is for a total of 22 games per team.

    I am not sure how they decide where the odd game is to be played — but here is the remaining schedule courtesy of the BBC “football” web page:-

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/scot_prem/fixtures/default.stm

    I believe the Scottish Premier League is clear of any points deduction!!!

    Cheers,

    Colin.

  5. Ken Roberts Says:

    Thank you Colin, you are correct. I fixed.

    What’s next? :)

  6. Colin Pollard Says:

    Hi Ken,

    You have omitted 2 midweek games from the English League Division 2 —- I have not checked the other divisions.

    The missing games (home team first) are:_

    Chesterfield 3 Rochdale 4
    Peterborough 8 Accrington 2

    The following BBC link should help you keep up to date with all the major English league teams:-

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/tables/default.stm

    AND the Scottish Premier League:-

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/scot_prem/table/default.stm

    Cheers,

    Colin.

  7. Ken Roberts Says:

    Thank you Colin. Hopefully it is better now.