NFL off today, and we have weight.

November 17th, 2008

The NFL pages are only sporadically updated today. I’m getting a “cannot convert ‘ ‘ to double” error in my xslt code that generates the html. I’ll fix it after I get some coffee. I wonder if it has anything to do with that Eagles-Bengals tie? All across America folks with sports websites are wondering “do we handle ties?”

I’ve added a weighted version to every non gasoline sport. It takes record and home field advantage into account when simulating games. I want to add one more tweek and then I’ll explain how it works in more detail.
For example, here is weighted ACC football.

[Update: The tie did me in! NFL is fixed now, except the “big game” section for that tie just shows a 0 because I don’t generate that data for the NFL, because it never happens :). The Odds in playoffs, “What if”, and tie breaking code all handle ties, only the big game section will look funky.]

NHL change since yesterday numbers are off today.

October 23rd, 2008

Yesterday I was coding up a weighted version of Hockey and ended up “improving” some code that effects the 50/50 version too. I tested it by rerunning yesterdays NHL odds (without pushing the results to the live site) and, lo and behold, the numbers where wrong. The program that automatically runs each night still uses the unbroken older code, but the xml data file that stores all the season’s numbers still has the bad results from my testing. I made a copy before my testing but forgot to revert back to it. I blame it on the World Series. :)
So, for today only, the NHL yesterday’s change and big games numbers are off. The current odds in, today’s big games, and what if numbers are correct.
If all goes well I’ll have the weighted version complete for tomorrow, although we still need a few more weeks under our belt for it to be more accurate than the 50/50 version.

Daily summary

October 11th, 2008

Here is a first draft of an auto generated daily summary I’ve been working on. My goal is to show the biggest movers across the whole site.

Yesterdays top 10 winners
Team What changed Why League
Montpellier HSC 6.68 promoted Vannes tied Boulogne 0-0 Ligue 2
Dagenham & Redbridge F.C. 6.55 promoted Dag & Red beat Barnet 2-0 Football League Two
Angers SCO -5.65 demoted Vannes tied Boulogne 0-0 Ligue 2
Troyes AC -5.57 demoted Vannes tied Boulogne 0-0 Ligue 2
Northampton Town F.C. -5.30 demoted Northampton beat Hartlepool 1-0 League One
Columbus Blue Jackets 4.39 make playoffs Blue Jackets beat Stars 5-4 (ot) NHL
St. Louis Blues 4.37 make playoffs Blues beat Predators 5-2 NHL
Atlanta Thrashers 3.99 make playoffs Thrashers beat Capitals 7-4 NHL
Carolina Hurricanes 3.94 make playoffs Hurricanes beat Panthers 6-4 NHL
New Jersey Devils 3.93 make playoffs Devils beat Islanders 2-1 NHL
Top 10 losers
Stade Brestois 29 6.77 demoted Vannes tied Boulogne 0-0 Ligue 2
RC Strasbourg -6.54 promoted Vannes tied Boulogne 0-0 Ligue 2
New York Islanders -5.58 make playoffs Devils beat Islanders 2-1 NHL
Florida Panthers -5.53 make playoffs Hurricanes beat Panthers 6-4 NHL
Washington Capitals -5.50 make playoffs Thrashers beat Capitals 7-4 NHL
Nashville Predators -5.03 make playoffs Blues beat Predators 5-2 NHL
Chicago Blackhawks -5.00 make playoffs Rangers beat Blackhawks 4-2 NHL
Hartlepool United F.C. 4.25 demoted Northampton beat Hartlepool 1-0 League One
Barnet F.C. 4.22 demoted Dag & Red beat Barnet 2-0 Football League Two
AC Ajaccio -3.83 promoted Vannes tied Boulogne 0-0 Ligue 2

Biggest referrers

October 7th, 2008

Sites that have sent 1,000+ folks my way:
Thank you 14,528 9,734 8,081 7,539 5,818 5,658 4,549 4,098 3,979 2,532 2,315 2,110 2,078 1,823
James Mirtle 1,640 1,635 1,576 1,557 1,376 1,272 1,216 1,057 1,037 1,016

How to interpret the MLS position numbers.

October 1st, 2008

Major League Soccer playoff seeding works a bit differently than other sports, and for now I’ve just shoehorned the numbers into my existing infrastructure. Here is how to read:

  • 1 = chance of winning Supporters’ Shield
  • 1 + 2 = chance of getting 1st seed in conference
  • 3 + 4 = chance of getting 2nd seed in conference
  • 5 + 6 = chance of getting 3rd seed in conference

The first number in each pair means the team was better than the team with that seed from the other conference, which is meaningless for playoff seeding but that’s where it comes from.

  • 7 = chance of getting 1st wildcard
  • 8 = chance of getting 2nd wildcard
  • 9 – 14 = did not make playoffs, ordered by points

I break ties using the same rules the MLS uses, except that I skip the “League Fair Play table” tiebreaker.

Fixed a little MLB bug

September 24th, 2008

Russ pointed out today that I was showing the D-Backs finishing 2nd 180 times out of 25 million, which is impossible. It’s fixed now. I was not initializing a variable and that could cause the top 3 seeds (in this case the 2nd and 3rd seed) to be mis-ordered once in a blue moon. The bug did not effect a team’s total odds in or any other sports besides baseball.
Thank you Russ.
I also fixed a bug in how the MLB “What If” sections where being grouped the last few days.

Agghhhhh, I’m doing MLS wrong!

September 23rd, 2008

Folks over at The Original Winger pointed out a mistake in my MLS tables. I correctly send 8 teams to the playoffs, but I send the top 2 teams from each conference and 4 wildcards. Actually the top 3 teams go (and 2 wildcards). Dohhh. I’m sorry I’ve misled you all season.

I think this will be good news for the teams fighting for 3rd in the West and bad new for the bottom East teams. It should take a couple hours to change the code and rerun the current standings, and then a few more hours to rerun the previous weeks (to fix the historical graph data).

I’ll update this post when it’s fixed.

Update: Everything is fixed.
Here are the correct odds with 5 weeks left. The Change columns shows how the odds changed after the fix.


Chance will make playoffs
P G W D L GD % Change
Crew 47 0 14 5 6 13 In
Revolution 42 0 12 6 7 2 99.9% -0.14
Dynamo 39 1 10 9 5 7 99.7% 0.10
Fire 38 0 11 5 9 7 95.7% -1.76
Red Bulls 35 0 9 8 8 -2 77.6% -5.03
CD Chivas 33 0 9 6 10 -5 65.3% 4.58
D.C. United 33 0 10 3 12 -2 56.3% -4.72
Rapids 31 0 9 4 12 0 41.1% 3.70
Wizards 32 0 8 8 9 -5 40.4% -8.14
Real Salt Lake 31 0 8 7 10 -2 38.8% 4.26
Earthquakes 29 1 7 8 9 -4 33.0% 2.89
FC Dallas 30 0 7 9 9 3 29.4% 2.93
Galaxy 29 0 7 8 10 -2 19.9% 3.09
Toronto FC 27 0 7 6 12 -10 3.1% -1.70

Fixed MLS

August 1st, 2008

Thank you Sean and a some of the folks on BigSoccer for pointing out the weirdness in the MLS change since last week numbers. It’s fixed. Last week I corrected a bad score from earlier in the season and did not do a complete enough job recomputing all the weeks between the score and now. The current chances where correct but last weeks still used the bad score, so the deltas where all off.
I added “games in hand” and a horizontal cut off line to the MLS and USL standings, and a “chance in playoffs” column to the What If section.
The weighted MLB version now uses Pythagopat and log5 instead of just log5, more on that later.

Moto racing

July 9th, 2008

The Moto Racing tab now covers the MotoGP and Superbike international road racing series.
MotoGP races custom bikes, you can’t buy them from the local dealer:
   MotoGP 800cc 4 cylinder 4-stroke engines (mostly), age 18+.
   MotoGP 250cc 2 cylinder 2-stroke, age 16+.
   MotoGP 125cc 1 cylinder 2-stroke, age 15-28.
Superbike races modified versions of normal street bikes (so they are all 4-stroke):
   Superbike 1000cc 4 cylinder or 1200cc 2 cylinder.
   Supersport 600cc 4 cylinder or 750cc 2 cylinder.
   Superstock 1000cc 4 cylinder or 1200cc 2 cylinder.

Two steps forward, one step back

June 26th, 2008

I just realized that the “big games” sections had stopped showing today’s big games. It’s fixed, I don’t know how long it has been broken. I also fixed some bad results I had for MLS and USL (thanks roxrok).
I’m working on adding MotoGP. Thanks Corey for cluing me in with “this MotoGP is wildly popular”.